molfi · market #151 · Starknet mainnet

STRK/USD

EVERY CHECK PASSED

Round
1h
Cutoff
Wed, 09 Sep 2026 13:50:19 GMT
Settled at
0.03155
Print age at settlement
6:56
Publishers
11
House edge
400 bps
Sigma
0.7041% of spot
the money behind this market
Staked
0.000000 STRK
Paid out
0.000000 STRK
House bankroll
0.000000 STRK
Owed to open positions
0.000000 STRK

Read from the market contract on Starknet mainnet, not from a database. The positions in this market are hashes — nobody, including molfi, can list who held them — but everything the outcome depended on is above, and every line below recomputes one part of it.

The stored probability table never dips, never exceeds one, and starts at zero

PASS
chain says
17 knots
recomputed
valid CDF

A dip in the table is a negative probability over that interval. It would misprice every band in this market at once rather than one of them.

The table the contract prices with is the one molfi published for this round

PASS
chain says
17 knots · a9250d8a
recomputed
17 knots · a9250d8a

A market listed with a private table settles honestly and can still be checked against nothing. This is the check that makes the published calibration mean something.

The round length is one molfi publishes a calibration for

PASS
chain says
3600s
recomputed
listed: 900s, 3600s, 14400s

A round length nothing was fitted for has no published table behind it, so its odds cannot be checked against anything — and if it is shorter than the oracle's publish interval it settles against a price that was already public when it opened.

The settling print was under 900s old when the market settled

PASS
chain says
published 1788961525, settled 1788961941
recomputed
416s old at settlement

A stale print settles every position in this market against a price that had already moved.

The market was not settled before its cutoff

PASS
chain says
settled 1788961941, cutoff 1788961819
recomputed
122s after cutoff

Settling early resolves every band against a price from inside the round, which is a different question from the one anyone was betting on.

At least 3 publishers stood behind the median

PASS
chain says
11 publishers
recomputed
floor is 3

A median of one publisher is one opinion wearing a median's clothes, and one account can move it.

The settled price is a real price

PASS
chain says
3155819
recomputed
positive

A zero settles every band as a miss, because no band straddling a real price contains zero.

The market has never paid out more than the stakes and bankroll behind it

PASS
chain says
paid 0, staked 0, bankroll 0
recomputed
0 still held

This is the only promise molfi makes about the money, and it is the reason all three totals are public. If it fails, someone's payout is funded by someone else's stake.

Everything still owed to open positions is already covered

PASS
chain says
reserved 0, paid 0, backing 0
recomputed
0 unallocated

The stronger promise, and the one that has to hold while a market is still open. Solvency measured only at claim time discovers a shortfall after the position was sold — the trader held a winning band all round and it does not pay. The contract reserves the full payout when a position opens, and this is that reservation checked from outside.

A one-sigma band prices to a sellable multiplier under the stored table

PASS
chain says
sigma 704113, edge 400 bps
recomputed
1.2862x at 74.6%

The desk and the contract run mirrored copies of the same integer kernel. This runs the kernel over what the contract stored, so a table and sigma that could only produce nonsense are caught here.

The house edge is the published one

PASS
chain says
400 bps
recomputed
400 bps

The fee is taken off every multiplier before it is offered. A market listed with a different one is charging a price nobody was told about.

Check it yourself

Returns market #151 straight from a public Starknet node. Felts 8 and 9 of the result — counting from zero — are the settled price as a u256, low limb first: divide the low limb by 1e8.

curl -s https://api.cartridge.gg/x/starknet/mainnet \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"starknet_call","params":[{"contract_address":"0x0215dc0b029cfa4d3671494ad4ddcd9ceede531867487a9970b094a665a3aaf9","entry_point_selector":"0x5764f9d1572e4d8cb7432f108c87d6ba790e18eb821744b0eefd034e85fc79","calldata":["0x97"]},"latest"]}'
What stays hidden

Which bands were bought, how large each was, and whether any of them was yours. The totals above are public because conservation is only a promise if somebody can check it — and checking it needs two numbers, not a list of traders.

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